The Refugee Affected and Hosting Areas programme (RAHA) has been designed to promote regional stability and compensate for the social, economic and environmental consequences wrought on Pakistani communities by the presence of more than 3 million Afghans over the past 30 years. For the 1.7 million registered Afghans remaining in Pakistan after the large-scale repatriation since 2002, the programme will promote peaceful co-existence with local communities until conditions in Afghanistan are conducive for their return.
The overall objective of the RAHA programme is to improve livelihoods, rehabilitate the environment and enhance social cohesion within communities of refugee-affected and hosting areas. Public services will be improved and policies made more effective by strengthening the capacities of the government, community institutions and vulnerable groups. The UN One Programme crosscutting issues relating to human rights, gender equality, civil society engagement and refugees will be addressed. Peaceful co-existence between the communities will safeguard a more predictable stay for Afghans until they can return to Afghanistan.
RAHA is a five-year initiative between the Government of Pakistan (SAFRON/CCAR/EAD), the UN System, International Donors including EC and implementing partners. Under the framework of the One UN in Pakistan, RAHA is a Joint Programme Component of the Disaster Risk Management Joint Programme within the UN Delivering as One.
The programme will be implemented in 30 districts, most of them in Balochistan and NWFP, and six urban areas. It will substantially improve the standard of living of over 1 million Pakistanis who have, or who are still, hosting Afghans and will also ensure a predictable, safe stay, with documentation, for Afghans in Pakistan. Crucially, it will strengthen the Pakistan Government’s governance and public service delivery. The total cost of the programme over five years is USD 140 million.
2) Study Rationale
Refugee Affected and Hosting Areas programme has undertaken significant work at the field level during year 2010 ranging from community physical infrastructure schemes to major infrastructure projects to improve the social services delivery systems in the target areas. This study is therefore to assess the impact of its various interventions especially in the areas of Community Physical Infrastructure (CPIs) schemes with respect to impact on the beneficiary communities. The main filters / parameters to assess the impact will be the economic, financial and social returns of various interventions in the aforementioned areas / sectors.
3) Scope of Study
• Undertake the overall economic and financial analysis of the project interventions / development schemes. Estimate the rate of return on the investment of the project made in concerned schemes and compare it with the rate of investment of a similar project managed under a different implementation modality.
• Quantify the immediate outputs / returns (social, economic) of the selected project interventions to the target communities, especially vulnerable groups, women and children.
• Estimate the impact of the above with respect to incomes, livelihoods and overall social and economic well being of project beneficiaries. Assess and quantify the project contribution to additional livelihood opportunities and its impact at the household level and in the project target areas. This impact analysis will use the different filters including sex, poverty ranks, social exclusion etc to assess the distributional equity of project benefits.
• Assess the vulnerability of target groups to various economic and financial shocks, analyze the drivers for reducing vulnerability in the local context and measure the contribution of the project to address vulnerability
• Assess and measure project externalities; both positive and negative. This may include an analysis of the effect of project on the local economy with regard the creation of (temporary) employment and investment (especially in horticultural farming) opportunities, the effect on natural resources etc. Also assess if the communities are replicating the project interventions on their own or with the support of other agencies.
The study will make extensive use of different economic models and tools with a view to quantify as much as possible the project progress; current and estimated, and the emerging and forecasted project impact using the “with” and “without” project model by comparing the situation in the project target areas with those in the non target areas. This may include the use of different simulation models, sensitivity analysis and undertaking rigorous economic and financial analysis. The consultant will adopt a consultative and participative approach towards data collection and field work. This will include visits to project sites and meetings with communities / project direct beneficiaries in the 9 districts of the project, 5 in Balochistan namely Quetta, Pishin, Loralai, Chaghi and Killa Abdullah and 4 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa namely Peshawar, Nowshera, Swabi and Haripur and the data provided by the project. The consultant will make use of the relevant secondary data where appropriate. However, the type and source of secondary data would need to be discussed with the project and provincial programme management units (PMUs) beforehand. The sample size and data collection tools will need to be reviewed and endorsed by the project and PMUs before its rollout in the field. The methodology shall also include an analysis of the cost sharing contributions made by the concerned communities; the effectiveness and efficiencies (time and cost) of this community based schemes and preferably compare the results with non community based initiatives.
5) Study Deliverables
The consultant will draft a report as per the format approved by the project / UNDP. The report will be finalized in the light of comments/suggestions of Project / UNDP. The key deliverables of the study are:
a) Draft Report Template: Submission of a draft report format containing Table of Contents of the final report for approval by Project / UNDP. The draft report format will also include contents of executive summary, study methodology, data collection tools including a brief introduction of the parameters / indicators on which data will be collected, types and sources of primary and secondary data, the tools / models for data analysis, data presentation formats (tables, charts etc).
b) Study report: The Final Study report should be logically structured. It will contain the evidence-based findings, conclusions, lessons and recommendations, and should be free of information that is not relevant to the overall analysis and cannot be corroborated by evidence. The report should respond in detail to the key focus areas described above and would contain a set of specific policy related recommendations.
c) Module for impact assessment: the consultant will be required to develop a user friendly module for the field teams to collect the aforementioned data from the field. He/ she will be required to train the field staff on how to effectively collect the data and analyze it.
d) Background Documents
o Project Document
o Need Assessment Report
o Project Annual & Quarterly Progress Reports during 2010
o Publications/ Studies / Reports compiled by the project staff
e) Consultancy Duration
45 working days spread over a period of three months.