The Area development programme Balochistan Phase II (ADPB II) is a community driven area development project funded by UNDP, Government of Balochistan (GOB), WFP and local communities. It is a four year project (July 2006-June 2010) and has started its field operations in April 2007. The Project is being implemented by Planning and Development Department of Government of Balochistan.
The objective of the project is to contribute to poverty reduction in the project target union councils through community based interventions to improve crop and livestock productivity, conserve natural resources, improve communities ‘ access to market and services, support income generation activities, and strengthen women’s role in development. The project’s target area includes the selected valleys of 9 district of Balochistan including Musakhail, Loralai, Qila Saifullah, Ziarat, Pishin, Quetta, Mastung, Kalat and Khuzdar.
2) Study Rationale
The second phase of ADPB is in the fourth year of its operation. The project has undertaken significant work at the field level. This study is therefore to assess the impact of its various interventions especially in the areas of Natural Resource Management, Agriculture and Livestock with respect to their impact on the livelihoods and food security of beneficiary communities. The main filters / parameters to assess the impact will be the economic, financial and social returns of various interventions in the aforementioned areas / sectors.
3) Scope of Study
• Undertake the overall economic and financial analysis of the project interventions / development schemes. Estimate the rate of return on the investment of the project made in concerned schemes and compare it with the rate of investment of a similar project managed under a different implementation modality.
• Quantify the immediate outputs / returns of the selected project interventions. This may include (but not limited to) a) the availability of water through development of existing sources of water and conservation and resultant percentage increase in the yield/ produce; b) the development/preparation of dry/barren land, harvesting of rain water for cultivation of crops; and, c) creation of livestock assets for the rural poor women
• Estimate the impact of the above against the project baseline with respect to incomes, livelihoods and overall social and economic well being of project beneficiaries. Assess and quantify the project contribution to additional food production and its impact on food security at the household level and in the project target areas. This impact analysis will use the different filters including sex, poverty ranks, social exclusion etc to assess the distributional equity of project benefits.
• Assess the vulnerability of target groups to various economic and financial shocks, analyze the drivers for reducing vulnerability in the local context and measure the contribution of the project to address vulnerability
• Assess and measure project externalities; both positive and negative. This may include an analysis of the effect of project on the local economy with regard the creation of (temporary) employment and investment (especially in horticultural farming) opportunities, the effect on natural resources etc. Also assess if the communities are replicating the project interventions on their own or with the support of other agencies.
The study will make extensive use of different economic models and tools with a view to quantify as much as possible the project progress; current and estimated, and the emerging and forecasted project impact using the “with” and “without” project model by comparing the situation in the project target areas with those in the non target areas. This may include the use of different simulation models, sensitivity analysis and undertaking rigorous economic and financial analysis. The consultant will adopt a consultative and participative approach towards data collection and field work. This will include visits to project sites and meetings with communities / project direct beneficiaries in the three regions of the project namely Quetta, Khuzdar and Loralai collect primary data and validate the data provided by the project. The consultant will make use of the relevant secondary data where appropriate. However, the type and source of secondary data would need to be discussed with the project and UNDP beforehand. The sample size and data collection tools will need to be reviewed and endorsed by UNDP and the project before its rollout in the field. The methodology shall also include an analysis of the cost sharing contributions made by the concerned communities, the effectiveness and efficiencies (time and cost) of these community based schemes and preferably compare the results with non community based initiatives.
5) Study Deliverables
The consultant will draft a report as per the format approved by the project / UNDP. The report will be finalized in the light of comments/suggestions of Project / UNDP. The key deliverables of the study are:
a) Draft Report Template: Submission of a draft report format containing Table of Contents of the final report for approval by Project / UNDP. The draft report format will also include contents of executive summary, study methodology, data collection tools including a brief introduction of the parameters / indicators on which data will be collected, types and sources of primary and secondary data, the tools / models for data analysis, data presentation formats (tables, charts etc).
b) Study report: The Final Study report should be logically structured. It will contain the evidence-based findings, conclusions, lessons and recommendations, and should be free of information that is not relevant to the overall analysis and cannot be corroborated by evidence. The report should respond in detail to the key focus areas described above and would contain a set of specific policy related recommendations.