UNDP support to the Planning Commission was initiated in February 2002 with the creation of the Centre for Research on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution (CRPRID) as a dedicated research facility in the Planning Commission. The work of CRPRID primarily focused on poverty measurement, research and analysis of public policies on poverty, progress monitoring of MDGs, and provision of policy inputs to the Government of Pakistan (GOP). This coincided with the support by the World Bank and DFID to support the Planning Commission in the development of its Social Protection Strategy through the Poverty Centre.
In June 2007 the Planning Commission decided to expand the CRPRID’s scope of work and structure to include a social policy planning focus in addition to a poverty measurement and research focus and the monitoring of MDGs. As a result, the Centre was renamed the Centre for Poverty Reduction and Social Policy Development (CPRSPD). Planning Commission and UNDP entered into a cost sharing agreement to collectively support the CPRSPD to transition from a project to a competitive and well networked poverty research institution.
More recently Planning Commission has come up with the idea of New Growth Framework with a focus on Inclusive Growth. The New Growth Framework (NGF) of the Government of Pakistan has been approved by the Prime Minister of Pakistan in the National Economic Council meeting held on 28 May 2011. The NGF reorients the focus of the Government from being an “implementer and service provider” to a “facilitator’ and a “watch dog” to promote competition, innovation and entrepreneurship. At this juncture, a strong need is felt to reorient the Centre for Poverty Reduction and Social Policy Development (CPRSPD) towards working on sustained economic growth and inclusive development. Planning Commission and the UNDP have been working on transforming the existing CPRSPD into an Inclusive Growth Centre (IGC). The proposed IGC will be a hub of Research, Advocacy, Consultations to implement and monitor the NGF at the national and sub national level and to support human development and the attainment of MDGs.
The New Growth Strategy is being developed for the 10th Five Year Plan of the Planning Commission. The themes of the strategy include competitive markets, innovation, governance, creative cities, productivity and youth and community. More recently, Pakistan’s economy is experiencing severe energy shortages that has already negatively impacted the various sectors of the economy and thereby slowed down the economic growth Planning Commission with the help of UNDP has proposed to conduct a comprehensive study that would focus on Impact of Power Shortages on Economic Growth in Pakistan.In this regard, we are looking for an experienced consultant having expertise in modeling energy and economic growth.
Outline of the Research Paper
The consultant would have the following specific tasks to be completed within the scope of the study.
1. Review of Pakistan and regional literature on linkages between electricity supply and economic growth and human development
2. Based on the literature review, estimates for impact of electricity shortages on economic growth will be established. These estimates will be supplemented/supported with analysis of the electricity and GDP data using regressions, causation tests and/or other tools (such as refinements on approaches used in the other studies).
3. Production loss in economic sectors due to electricity shortages, and consolidation to see an overall impact on GDP
4. Quantitative impact on GDP of unplanned electricity shortages versus planned energy shortages
5. Role of electricity prices in creating gaps in supply and demand including the impact of removal of subsidies over the years (qualitative or quantitative assessment depending on availability of information)
6. Impact of the circular debt on the national economy and its growth.
7. Conclusions, limitations and recommendations for further work
The duration of the contract would be 35 days spread over three months. The consultant will be responsible to submit the final Research Report before the expiry of his contract which will then be evaluated by the Planning Commission /UNDP.